Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44d3…159b
other · 67 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$145
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses33 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage470d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $142 $142 −$1 (-1%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $51 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $58 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $143 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $15 +$1 +10%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $142 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1,131 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $244 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $348 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $103 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $156 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $142 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $145 −$3 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1,843 −$3 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 12 $1,033 +$1 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $12 $0 +3%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 24 $3 −$1 -46%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 31 $2 $0 -20%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 30 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 28 $2 $0 +20%
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? May 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 26 $1 $0 +13%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? May 26 $3 $0 +3%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will ‘KONOSUBA -God’s Blessing on This Wonderful World! 3’ win Crunchy May 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on May 23? May 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 22 $23 −$4 -18%
Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Metallic Rouge' win Crunchyroll's Best Original Anime Award for May 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 15 $21 +$1 +7%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? May 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $22 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 13 $22 $0 -2%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 76% −$7
other 19% −$2
politics 1% −$1
sports 1% +$13
crypto 1% −$4
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $142 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $51 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $56 41h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $58 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $143 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $143 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $96 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $58 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $85 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $97 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $88 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $88 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $68 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $68 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $156 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $156 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $104 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $103 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.4% -9.2% 21% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 +0.3% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 66 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.56 · official $144.56 (match) · 279 history records