Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44cf…8af0 crypto 324 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (160 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-3%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%155W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day159.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$51
sports 23% −$12
other 19% +$15
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (160 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 323 -13.7% -21.9% 48% 42% -14.6%
≤30d 323 -13.7% -21.9% 48% 42% -14.6%
≤90d 323 -13.7% -21.9% 48% 42% -14.6%
all 323 -13.7% -21.9% 48% 42% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover159.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 42% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 35% -22.7%
15% -36.2% 29% -30.2%
20% -42.5% 21% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses155 / 168
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)323 / 324
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day159.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +116%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 11h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 31h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $5 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.94 · official $4.94 (match) · 932 history records