Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44c9…ca41 other 426 markets active 3h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$640 (-8%) realized −$643 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%117W / 299L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days+$377
14 days+$362
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$370
sports 14% +$130
world 10% −$107
crypto 7% −$118
politics 6% −$175
weather 3% −$30
finance 2% −$28
economics 1% −$18
tech 0% −$29
culture 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.8% -10.2% 46% 46% +11.9%
≤30d 119 +0.4% -9.1% 32% 29% -5.6%
≤90d 339 -22.1% -29.5% 27% 24% -18.6%
all 416 -22.3% -29.7% 28% 25% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 25% -19.6%
10% -36.4% 22% -27.3%
15% -42.6% 19% -34.3%
20% -48.2% 18% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized−$643
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses117 / 299
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)416 / 426
History coverage110d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $39 $33 −$5 (-14%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $201 +$259 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $131 +$71 +54%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 21 $79 −$61 -77%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? Jun 21 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $31 −$11 -37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $86 +$45 +52%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $95 −$6 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$26 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 +$49 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 +$8 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $181 −$8 -4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $77 +$113 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$10 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $55 +$36 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 +$38 +97%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $99 −$17 -17%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $43 −$4 -10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$52 -93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +882%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$71 +531%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $210 −$11 -5%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$26 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$46 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $201 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 40h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $40 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $40 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2d
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $131 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $86 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $130 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $81 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $21 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.68 · official $321.68 (match) · 1123 history records