Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44c8…17c4 sports 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%6W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$6
politics 21% −$2
other 19% −$2
economics 12% −$2
world 7% −$1
tech 5% −$1
culture 4% −$1
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -10.1%
all 184 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses6 / 178
Open positions0
Markets (closed)184 / 184
History coverage166d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 184 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 18 $38 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $119 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $131 −$3 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 21 $151 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $214 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $117 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 20 $89 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $75 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $88 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $123 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $26 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $176 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $127 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $86 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $33 1h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $33 8h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 8d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 8d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $28 20d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $28 20d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $37 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $38 35d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $32 117d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $32 117d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 87¢ $37 118d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 93¢ $40 119d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $38 119d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $38 119d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $35 119d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $35 119d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 119d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 119d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 119d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 119d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $40 119d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $40 119d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $36 119d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $36 119d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $40 119d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $40 119d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $34 119d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $34 119d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $39 119d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $39 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 604 history records