Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44c7…9bde
sports · 1067 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$3,224 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,211 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$93
Realized+$3,211
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses617 / 446
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1063 / 1067
History coverage224d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 3 History 1063 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$192
14 days+$375
30 days+$436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 84¢ 100¢ $70 $83 +$13 (+19%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $81 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $59 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $81 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $39 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $61 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $67 +$29 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$44 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$7 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $124 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $113 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $56 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $91 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $79 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $73 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $59 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $84 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $72 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$16 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $128 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% +$1,806
crypto 24% −$90
other 18% +$1,510
politics 1% −$23
world 0% +$28
weather 0% −$7
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $81 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +2.6% -7.1% 83% 39% -5.3%
≤30d 292 +3.8% -6.1% 80% 38% -4.1%
≤90d 672 -10.4% -18.9% 59% 37% -13.4%
all 1063 +2.0% -7.7% 58% 43% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 43% +0.8%
10% -16.5% 34% -8.8%
15% -24.6% 25% -17.6%
20% -32.0% 21% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.97 · official $93.97 · 3500 history records