Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
44 0x44c6…1de5 other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$246 (+2%) realized +$240 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate89%47W / 6L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$475now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$87
crypto 29% +$20
tech 17% +$55
world 10% +$121
economics 7% +$5
politics 5% +$145
sports 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 12 -4.3% -13.4% 83% 8% -12.4%
all 53 +2.6% -7.2% 89% 8% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 8% -7.4%
10% -16.0% 6% -16.2%
15% -24.1% 6% -24.3%
20% -31.6% 6% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$25 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$475
Realized+$240
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses47 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage618d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $180 $181 +$1 (+0%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 15 $225 +$2 +1%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 15 $230 +$2 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $180 +$4 +2%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 21 $270 +$9 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 06 $180 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 06 $260 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 27 $50 +$11 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 14? Apr 27 $200 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $70 −$19 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $170 −$107 -63%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 14 $250 +$6 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 14 $283 +$5 +2%
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? Mar 21 $266 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 Mar 07 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate Mar 07 $160 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 07 $280 +$18 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 10 $65 +$3 +4%
Will Solana dip to $90 in January? Feb 10 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Feb 10 $240 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 24 $200 +$5 +2%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 09 $494 +$2 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 23 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7? Dec 23 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 07 $210 +$13 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 07 $262 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 4? Nov 25 $211 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25? Nov 04 $455 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,200 and $4,300 on October 10? Oct 25 $170 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 10? Oct 25 $290 +$3 +1%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Oct 10 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times August 29–September 5? Oct 10 $177 +$1 +0%
Ethereum above $4300 on September 1? Oct 10 $200 +$2 +1%
Base airdrop in Q3 2025? Sep 01 $300 −$2 -1%
Was Kanye hacked? Sep 01 $176 +$2 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 August 4–10? Aug 23 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3300 on July 21? Aug 10 $170 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Jul 21 $140 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jul 05 $190 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 05 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National majority? Jun 12 $66 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $190 $0 +0%
Will another company be the largest in the world by market cap on May Jun 12 $195 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 02 $167 +$1 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 02 $124 +$98 +79%
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14? Apr 15 $220 +$2 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Feb 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Feb 26 $95 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? Jan 01 $124 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $120 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $110 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $101 12d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $180 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $177 12d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $230 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $225 37d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 98¢ $180 52d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $270 52d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $260 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 74d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A SELL Vitality 65¢ $51 74d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Vitality 89¢ $70 74d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $63 74d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $170 74d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 14? BUY Up 98¢ $200 74d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $180 74d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 98¢ $283 99d
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $266 113d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $250 113d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 94¢ $280 138d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 BUY No 100¢ $70 138d
Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate BUY Yes 99¢ $160 138d
Will Solana dip to $90 in January? BUY No 99¢ $200 155d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? BUY No 98¢ $240 170d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $200 170d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $65 170d
Aster all time high by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $494 186d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $200 202d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $300 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $475.05 · official $475.05 (match) · 114 history records