Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44c5…8d45
sports · 105 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$867,826 -108%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$873,166 · open −$743
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$873,166
Unrealized−$743
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses67 / 495
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Est. fees paid−$5,730
Open positions1
Markets (closed)562 / 105
History coverage21d
Avg bet$7,661
Trades / day160.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 562 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$847,421
7 days−$839,847
14 days−$884,396
30 days−$873,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $750 $7 −$743 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 25¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A PARIVISION 43¢ 0¢ $3,818 $0 −$3,818 (-100%)
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-01-20? No 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-01-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-23? No 8¢ 0¢ $456 $0 −$456 (-100%)
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-02-15? No 21¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $4,574 $0 −$4,574 (-100%)
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) Racing Club de Lens 21¢ 0¢ $2,501 $0 −$2,501 (-100%)
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-01-17? No 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5) FC Schalke 04 38¢ 0¢ $5,001 $0 −$5,001 (-100%)
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $3,888 $0 −$3,888 (-100%)
Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $5,002 $0 −$5,002 (-100%)
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Crystal Palace FC 28¢ 0¢ $5,001 $0 −$5,001 (-100%)
CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $10,000 $0 −$10,000 (-100%)
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-01-17? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-01-31? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Telstar 1963 vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $3,507 $0 −$3,507 (-100%)
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-13? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1,001 $0 −$1,001 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 41¢ 0¢ $2,501 $0 −$2,501 (-100%)
Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5) CR Flamengo 34¢ 0¢ $1,892 $0 −$1,892 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 40¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-02-14? No 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 13 $3,818 −$3,818 -100%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-01-20? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-01-14? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -80%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-23? Jun 13 $456 −$456 -100%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-02-15? Jun 13 $95 −$838 -881%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4,574 −$4,574 -100%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,501 −$2,501 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-01-17? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Jun 13 $151 −$151 -100%
Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5) Jun 13 $5,001 −$5,001 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3,888 −$3,888 -100%
Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5,002 −$5,002 -100%
CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-01-17? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-01-31? Jun 13 $0 +$142 +204063%
Telstar 1963 vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,507 −$3,507 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-13? Jun 13 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5) Jun 13 $1,892 −$1,892 -100%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-02-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 13 $1,000 −$1,193 -119%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-03-22? Jun 13 $86 −$86 -100%
Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $181 −$181 -100%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-04? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Volendam: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $374 −$374 -100%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -97%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-01-28? Jun 13 $1,391 −$1,391 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25? Jun 13 $546 −$546 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,577 −$3,577 -100%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-04? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 13 $3,835 −$3,835 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Jun 13 $0 +$508 +359306%
CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $0 −$3,284 -857378%
Fulham FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5,002 −$5,002 -100%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) Jun 13 $10,162 −$10,162 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2025-12-29? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Minnesota United FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4,883 −$4,883 -100%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-02-08? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4,050 −$4,050 -100%
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-01-17? Jun 13 $11 +$26 +236%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-21? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-03-08? Jun 13 $1,615 −$1,615 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $1,501 −$1,501 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 13 $5,375 −$5,375 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Jun 13 $2,578 −$2,578 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-04-02? Jun 13 $3,206 −$3,206 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% −$1,753
other 42% +$2,060
world 0% −$2,915
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $250 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $235 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $257 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $13 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $3 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $18 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $11 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $6 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $11 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 16¢ $119 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 16¢ $2 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 16¢ $128 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 16¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $140 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $88 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $40 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $44 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $4 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $3 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $415 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $95 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 489 -43.1% -48.5% 7% 6% -75.9%
≤30d 562 -36.1% -42.2% 12% 11% -58.8%
≤90d 562 -36.1% -42.2% 12% 11% -58.8%
all 562 -36.1% -42.2% 12% 11% -58.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover160.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.2% 11% -58.8%
10% -47.7% 10% -62.8%
15% ← realistic here -52.8% 9% -66.4%
20% -57.4% 9% -69.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.67 · official $6.67 (match) · 3500 history records