Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44c4…09cb other 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 571d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30,389 (-19%) realized −$31,471 · open +$1,082
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%41W / 102L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,050per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$259est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$2,082now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,526
7 days+$1,875
14 days+$50
30 days−$3,586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$21,456
sports 17% −$6,126
world 2% −$2,800
crypto 1% +$2,107
culture 0% −$350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.5% -6.3% 26% 26% +3.6%
≤30d 33 +4.7% -5.2% 33% 33% -18.8%
≤90d 92 -3.9% -13.1% 29% 29% -18.8%
all 143 -16.0% -24.0% 29% 28% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 28% -29.5%
10% -31.3% 28% -36.3%
15% -37.9% 27% -42.4%
20% -44.0% 27% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$1,030) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -36% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,492 vs −$891 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

571d coverage
Net worth$2,082
Realized−$31,471
Unrealized+$1,082
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses41 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$259
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 150
History coverage571d
Avg bet$1,050
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 48¢ 100¢ $1,000 $2,082 +$1,082 (+108%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $1,018 +$1,526 +150%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,030 −$383 -37%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,026 −$83 -8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,028 −$23 -2%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $513 −$500 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Ladislav Krejčí: 1+ goals Jun 18 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $410 −$400 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1,424 +$1,726 +121%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $133 −$130 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $514 −$500 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $154 +$1,261 +818%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $643 +$1,307 +203%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $307 −$188 -61%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $508 +$502 +99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,016 +$1,000 +98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 +$410 +266%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,014 +$731 +72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $479 −$466 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,562 −$2,500 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,354 +$3,663 +84%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2,032 +$2,311 +114%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $9,665 −$7,460 -77%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $965 +$271 +28%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $4,584 −$1,508 -33%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,025 −$914 -89%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $608 −$600 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $1,016 +$1,110 +109%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1,518 +$956 +63%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 2 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $215 −$210 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,615 −$1,027 -64%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,024 +$3,413 +333%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,529 +$2,634 +172%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? May 16 $500 +$442 +88%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26? May 16 $2,800 +$3,411 +122%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 16 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $358 −$350 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $713 −$700 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $922 −$900 -98%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $1,840 −$1,800 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 18¢ $256 21h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran BUY 3¢ $206 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $1,018 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $647 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $944 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1,005 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 20¢ $1,024 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $509 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Repub BUY 11¢ $1,027 3d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Folarin Balo BUY 9¢ $103 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY 6¢ $206 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $1,022 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,030 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,028 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,026 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 15¢ $513 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 3d
Ladislav Krejčí: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $154 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,020 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $410 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $3,149 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $133 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $103 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $205 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $508 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $915 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $514 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,082.29 · official $2,082.29 (match) · 333 history records