Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44c1…ebc1
world · 221 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$312,577 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$64,673 · open −$2,470
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$645,870
Realized+$64,673
Unrealized−$2,470
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses105 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions110
Markets (closed)154 / 221
Avg bet$18,767
Trades / day114.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 110 History 154 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,960
7 days+$63,254
14 days+$24,498
30 days+$64,673
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 82¢ $129,520 $149,506 +$19,986 (+15%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $110,938 $118,631 +$7,693 (+7%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 90¢ 97¢ $89,360 $96,556 +$7,196 (+8%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 82¢ 84¢ $73,608 $74,504 +$896 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $48,031 $54,882 +$6,851 (+14%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 94¢ 100¢ $29,131 $30,776 +$1,645 (+6%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 59¢ 64¢ $15,231 $16,681 +$1,450 (+10%)
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? No 97¢ 100¢ $12,299 $12,617 +$317 (+3%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10,467 $10,415 −$53 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $7,945 $8,279 +$333 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $8,844 $7,467 −$1,376 (-16%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 82¢ $6,238 $6,862 +$624 (+10%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 91¢ 94¢ $6,085 $6,252 +$167 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 35¢ 18¢ $10,425 $5,541 −$4,885 (-47%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $3,909 $4,098 +$189 (+5%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $3,924 $3,603 −$321 (-8%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 86¢ 81¢ $3,344 $3,158 −$186 (-6%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $2,341 $2,416 +$75 (+3%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $2,283 $2,334 +$51 (+2%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $2,268 $2,257 −$11 (-0%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $3,203 $2,089 −$1,114 (-35%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? Yes 41¢ 24¢ $3,570 $2,042 −$1,528 (-43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 34¢ $1,466 $1,964 +$498 (+34%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 93¢ 56¢ $3,030 $1,840 −$1,190 (-39%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $2,507 $1,757 −$750 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Jon Hansen and Larry Rhoden advance to the South Dakota Governor Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $139 +$434 +312%
Will Jon Hansen and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governor Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2,736 +$127 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $3,479 +$551 +16%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $1,220 +$3 +0%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $3,571 −$2,825 -79%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $5,359 −$5,144 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $4,634 +$68 +2%
Will Ken Calvert advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $112 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $1,896 −$1,241 -65%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 10 $2,874 −$2,813 -98%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $482 +$150 +31%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $45,445 +$6,049 +13%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,116 +$45 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30,019 +$1,534 +5%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 09 $396 +$118 +30%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $39 +$37 +96%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $42,680 +$3,946 +9%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $140,834 +$37,730 +27%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $145,169 +$20,303 +14%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? Jun 08 $12 +$1 +9%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m? Jun 08 $11 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $8,782 +$491 +6%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $471 +$2 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $32 $0 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $42 $0 +1%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $955 +$144 +15%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $16,912 +$2,953 +18%
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $135 +$15 +11%
Spread: Bahrain (-2.5) Jun 08 $1,179 +$784 +66%
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5) Jun 08 $1,507 +$818 +54%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $57 +$6 +11%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $2,492 +$46 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $1,780 +$58 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $3,145 +$161 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,419 −$1,381 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $80 +$4 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 07 $3 +$21 +684%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June Jun 07 $692 +$172 +25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $48 +$33 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $2,783 −$2,778 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $233 +$82 +35%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $10,346 +$1,778 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 41% +$93,640
crypto 30% +$203,593
world 16% −$230,096
other 9% −$27,745
culture 2% +$3,930
sports 1% +$5,136
economics 0% +$13,360
tech 0% +$56
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $541 46m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $6,441 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $181 55m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 38¢ $1,053 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 62¢ $1,492 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 4h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 4h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $15 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,212 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $5 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $4 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $56 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $7 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $9 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $9 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $28 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $57 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $69 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $12 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $32 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $43 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $4 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $4 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $6 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $21 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 87¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +6.6% -3.5% 74% 35% +3.5%
≤30d 154 +11.9% +1.2% 68% 31% -4.7%
≤90d 154 +11.9% +1.2% 68% 31% -4.7%
all 154 +11.9% +1.2% 68% 31% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover114.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.2% 31% -4.7%
10% -8.5% 17% -13.8%
15% ← realistic here -17.3% 12% -22.1%
20% -25.4% 12% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $645,869.81 · official $645,865.56 (match) · 3500 history records