Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:57:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

44 0x44bf…ea02 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 418d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$13,184 (-82%) realized −$13,183 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate33%5W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$949per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$13

7 days+$13

14 days+$13

30 days+$13

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-36.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+11.0%	+0.4%	67%	67%	-6.7%
≤30d	6	+11.0%	+0.4%	67%	67%	-6.7%
≤90d	6	+11.0%	+0.4%	67%	67%	-6.7%
all	15	-29.5%	-36.2%	33%	27%	-85.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.2%	27%	-85.1%
10%	-42.3%	20%	-86.5%
15%	-47.9%	13%	-87.8%
20%	-53.0%	13%	-89.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 70% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -30% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -55% → late -8% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

39.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$1,340 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage

Net worth$116

Realized−$13,183

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses5 / 10

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage418d

Avg bet$949

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$112	$111	−$1 (-1%)
Yoon out of custody before 2027?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$8	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 17	$27	+$28	+106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 17	$105	−$105	-100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	−$5	-48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$144	+$32	+22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$100	+$54	+54%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	Dec 07	$233	−$122	-52%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September?	Jun 05	$10	−$3	-26%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea?	Jun 05	$3,913	−$2,971	-76%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	Jun 05	$5,289	−$5,289	-100%
Will Han Dong-hoon win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec	Jun 05	$568	−$568	-100%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect	May 26	$223	−$2	-1%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo?	May 25	$114	+$1	+1%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?	May 24	$972	−$59	-6%
Will Han Dong-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president	May 23	$4,272	−$4,272	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$113	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	SELL Up	51¢	$34	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	SELL Up	14¢	$55	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$105	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	11¢	$5	2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	87¢	$176	2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$43	4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$154	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$100	6h
Yoon out of custody before 2027?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	11d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	BUY Yes	24¢	$111	191d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	SELL Yes	23¢	$111	191d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?	BUY Yes	25¢	$122	191d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September?	SELL Yes	3¢	$7	376d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	377d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	0¢	$180	378d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	3¢	$15	378d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	3¢	$330	378d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	4¢	$370	379d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	4¢	$15	379d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	4¢	$360	379d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	4¢	$0	379d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	4¢	$20	380d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	4¢	$39	380d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	4¢	$22	380d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	4¢	$5	380d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.99 · official $115.95 (match) · 704 history records