Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44bc…9052
other · 466 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$79 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$104 · open +$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$169
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses112 / 333
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions21
Markets (closed)445 / 466
History coverage400d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 21 History 445 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 18¢ 77¢ $6 $25 +$20 (+331%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 45¢ 64¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Discord IPO before 2027? No 42¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+363%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Databricks vs Salesforce - higher valuation on June 30? Databricks 52¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30? Yes 37¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30? Yes 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 25¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? No 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Yes 43¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$11 +157%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 −$21 -72%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
Son Heungmin: 1+ assists Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$9 +123%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -62%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$4 +139%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 $0 -47%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4 $0 -4%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2 $0 +15%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -51%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $2 +$1 +69%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $7 −$7 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 24 $3 +$4 +145%
Will Sonny Styles be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 23 $2 +$2 +84%
Will Francis Mauigoa be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arvell Reese be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -85%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $13 +$7 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 16 $6 −$1 -19%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $6 +$5 +86%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 3 Real Madrid CF? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Federico Valverde: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -59%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Apr 14 $1 $0 +21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $5 +$8 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% −$74
sports 15% −$21
finance 7% −$17
politics 7% +$51
world 5% +$20
economics 4% −$12
crypto 4% −$25
tech 2% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? BUY No $1 5h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 28¢ $1 5h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $10 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 57¢ $5 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 53¢ $5 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $5 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 5h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $20 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 5h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 5h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $20 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5h
Son Heungmin: 1+ assists SELL Yes $0 20h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? SELL No $0 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -7.4% -16.2% 25% 21% -5.8%
≤30d 29 -13.6% -21.8% 28% 24% -6.6%
≤90d 103 -22.0% -29.4% 27% 20% -11.4%
all 445 -15.0% -23.1% 25% 22% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 22% -15.8%
10% -30.4% 21% -23.8%
15% -37.2% 20% -31.2%
20% -43.3% 17% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.80 · official $168.80 (match) · 1164 history records