Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x44b5…9385
crypto · 69 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$53 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$146 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$81
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)57 / 69
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 11 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$146
14 days−$146
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 29¢ 62¢ $16 $33 +$17 (+109%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 22¢ 22¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 18¢ 20¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 16¢ 36¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+122%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 5¢ 20¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+290%)
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Mookie Betts: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$35 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $84 −$24 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$46 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$56 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$21 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$8 -45%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +238%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $6 +$24 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -56%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$4 -49%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$7 +312%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$15 +355%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Mookie Betts: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% −$83
other 14% −$41
sports 11% −$4
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -21.3% -28.8% 25% 25% -31.9%
≤30d 57 -21.3% -28.8% 25% 25% -31.9%
≤90d 57 -21.3% -28.8% 25% 25% -31.9%
all 57 -21.3% -28.8% 25% 25% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 25% -31.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 25% -38.5%
15% -41.8% 25% -44.4%
20% -47.5% 23% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.77 · official $67.20 · 132 history records