Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44b3…1fcb sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,539 (-59%) realized −$13,485 · open −$54
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$587per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$59
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$13,673
other 3% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-51.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -74.4% -76.8% 17% 17% -17.5%
≤30d 17 -36.8% -42.8% 35% 35% -8.2%
≤90d 38 -46.2% -51.3% 32% 32% -63.9%
all 38 -46.2% -51.3% 32% 32% -63.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.3% 32% -63.9%
10% -56.0% 26% -67.3%
15% -60.2% 21% -70.5%
20% -64.1% 18% -73.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$540) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -49% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$658 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$13,485
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage63d
Avg bet$587
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 42¢ 20¢ $100 $46 −$54 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $394 +$211 +54%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$83 +164%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $321 +$168 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $152 +$102 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $253 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $406 +$426 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $341 +$110 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $5,376 −$5,347 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 08 $546 −$538 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $306 −$300 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $687 +$167 +24%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $600 +$87 +14%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $204 −$200 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $204 −$200 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $203 −$200 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $509 +$806 +158%
MBA Moscow vs. Unics Kazan May 02 $179 +$21 +12%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $1,210 +$480 +40%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $305 −$300 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $683 +$844 +124%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $1,531 −$1,506 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $4,308 −$4,281 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $911 −$900 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 29 $510 −$500 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $548 −$540 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $129 −$127 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 43¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 42¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $192 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $31 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $134 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $321 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $101 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $253 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $152 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 49¢ $102 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 59¢ $202 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $832 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $406 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $450 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $8 11d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $332 11d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 36¢ $82 11d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $61 11d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $4 52d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $5,372 52d
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) BUY Lakers 50¢ $546 53d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 34¢ $306 53d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 80¢ $16 54d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 80¢ $671 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.89 · official $38.83 · 68 history records