Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44b2…8bad other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,017 (+1%) realized +$1,017 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate25%38W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$1,099per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$16
14 days−$169
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$302
politics 38% −$77
sports 11% +$1,427
world 5% −$52
culture 2% −$4
economics 1% −$3
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -5.7% -14.7% 9% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 81 -9.1% -17.8% 7% 4% -9.1%
all 150 +3.1% -6.8% 25% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 11% -9.0%
10% -15.7% 11% -17.7%
15% -23.8% 11% -25.6%
20% -31.3% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,427) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$7 · ×6.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$1,017
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses38 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,099
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $273 $273 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $4,080 −$5 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $6,320 −$6 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,458 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4,996 −$5 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $837 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,973 −$3 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $82 −$82 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,021 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,919 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $421 +$2 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $1,663 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $407 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,628 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,079 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $986 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $58 +$63 +109%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,757 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $2,225 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,132 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $2,043 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $3,449 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,111 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $1,118 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2,110 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,598 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,187 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $893 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $681 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $682 2h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $537 26h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $538 28h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $722 29h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $356 32h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $367 32h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $648 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $649 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $653 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $653 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $684 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $686 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $273 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $963 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $964 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $811 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $813 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $809 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $810 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $698 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $699 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $691 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $692 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $756 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $757 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $835 12d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $837 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $831 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $832 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.93 · official $272.93 (match) · 479 history records