Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
44 0x44b0…0822 culture 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care culture specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,660 (+47%) realized +$1,693 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$623
7 days+$623
14 days+$1,234
30 days+$1,617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$482
culture 45% +$1,102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +76.5% +59.7% 100% 100% +59.9%
≤30d 10 +31.3% +18.8% 90% 60% +33.1%
≤90d 10 +31.3% +18.8% 90% 60% +33.1%
all 10 +31.3% +18.8% 90% 60% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.8% 60% +33.1%
10% +7.4% 40% +20.3%
15% -3.0% 30% +8.7%
20% -12.5% 30% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$6 · ×30.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×274.15 per $1 lost it wins $274.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$1,693
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage19d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Yes 73¢ 49¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $408 +$496 +122%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $405 +$127 +31%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 10 $100 +$10 +10%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 10 $201 +$33 +16%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 global Netflix movie thi Jun 10 $301 +$29 +10%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 10 $502 +$51 +10%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 10 $355 +$489 +138%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 03 $460 +$277 +60%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 03 $695 +$112 +16%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 3d
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 52¢ $102 3d
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 69¢ $203 3d
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 20¢ $104 3d
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? SELL Yes 95¢ $337 4d
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 6d
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 88¢ $101 6d
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 6d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 41¢ $355 10d
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 10d
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 91¢ $100 10d
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 global Netflix movie thi BUY No 91¢ $301 10d
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 90¢ $301 10d
Will "The Witness" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 12d
Will "The Witness" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 87¢ $101 12d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 16d
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 86¢ $695 18d
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 61¢ $460 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.33 · official $65.27 · 28 history records