Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44ad…8186 crypto 687 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,827 (-5%) realized −$2,827 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%311W / 376L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days+$166
14 days−$373
30 days−$512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$3,495
other 8% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.4% -7.4% 53% 53% +0.2%
≤30d 64 -7.4% -16.2% 44% 44% -14.5%
≤90d 455 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 41% -14.1%
all 687 +1.0% -8.6% 45% 44% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 44% -14.7%
10% -17.3% 43% -22.9%
15% -25.3% 41% -30.3%
20% -32.6% 40% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$75 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,827
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses311 / 376
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)687 / 687
History coverage124d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 687 Trades
no open positions (354 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $204 +$82 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$115 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$52 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $372 +$107 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $129 +$243 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$81 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $117 −$33 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$32 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $204 −$197 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$87 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $156 +$188 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $187 +$177 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $73 −$51 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $141 −$136 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $222 +$315 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $294 −$278 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $261 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $156 +$172 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $306 +$386 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$141 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $251 +$125 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $279 +$284 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $155 +$122 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $99 −$93 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $201 −$194 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $99 +$102 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $91 −$87 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $167 −$161 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $300 +$195 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $372 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $129 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $49 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $34 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $83 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $24 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $204 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $18 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $156 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $344 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $156 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $68 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $90 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1490 history records