Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
44 0x44a7…4dad sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$45 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%29W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days+$3
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$28
sports 20% −$31
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -41.0% -46.6% 0% 0% -46.6%
≤30d 3 -40.8% -46.5% 33% 33% -51.7%
≤90d 28 +0.8% -8.8% 46% 36% -10.9%
all 53 -2.3% -11.6% 55% 47% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 47% -10.8%
10% -20.1% 32% -19.3%
15% -27.8% 25% -27.1%
20% -34.9% 13% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses29 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage94d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 73¢ 90¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+23%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 26¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$4 -41%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $40 +$7 +18%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 06 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +27%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $1,565 −$3 -0%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $250 −$3 -1%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $300 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 25 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 25 $7 $0 +7%
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $500 $0 +0%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $500 −$1 -0%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 24 $500 −$6 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 24 $12 −$4 -32%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 24 $5 +$4 +82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 24 $10 +$4 +37%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 24 $12 −$7 -55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Mar 23 $11 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 23 $3 +$2 +61%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $5 $0 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $3 +$3 +89%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 22 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $5 +$2 +41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Mar 21 $5 +$2 +45%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 21 $2 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 21 $2 $0 -21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $4 +$4 +96%
RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $15 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Mar 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 20 $8 +$2 +27%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Mar 19 $4 +$1 +15%
FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $5 +$3 +52%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $6 +$2 +41%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $11 +$6 +59%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $6 −$2 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 30¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $40 21d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 82d
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 95¢ $414 86d
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 95¢ $415 86d
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 20¢ $247 87d
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 98¢ $300 87d
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $300 87d
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 20¢ $250 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? SELL No 99¢ $50 87d
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 95¢ $548 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $50 87d
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 95¢ $550 87d
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 88¢ $5 87d
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 89¢ $5 87d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $467 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.60 · official $74.59 (match) · 151 history records