Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x44a3…c768 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-6%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.5% -12.7% 93% 7% -17.0%
≤30d 14 -3.5% -12.7% 93% 7% -17.0%
≤90d 14 -3.5% -12.7% 93% 7% -17.0%
all 14 -3.5% -12.7% 93% 7% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 7% -17.0%
10% -21.0% 0% -25.0%
15% -28.7% 0% -32.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records