Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
44 0x449f…2d2e sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$12
other 21% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.7% -21.0% 55% 55% -4.2%
≤30d 11 -12.7% -21.0% 55% 55% -4.2%
≤90d 13 -26.1% -33.2% 46% 46% -11.4%
all 18 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 50% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 50% -7.7%
10% -28.4% 50% -16.6%
15% -35.3% 44% -24.6%
20% -41.6% 33% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage393d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kamen: Josy Daems vs Valentina Ivanov Jun 28 $37 +$29 +78%
ITF Kayseri: Keshav Chopra vs Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra Jun 28 $63 +$23 +36%
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 +$9 +29%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $28 +$23 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $32 −$23 -72%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu Jun 27 $11 +$7 +64%
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman Jun 27 $95 +$44 +46%
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Tanger: Karim Bennani vs Sean Cuenin Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils Apr 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elina Svitolina vs Karolina Muchova Apr 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? Jun 08 $26 $0 -2%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $20 +$13 +65%
French Open: Zverev vs. Djokovic Jun 04 $10 +$10 +100%
French Open: Musetti vs. Rune Jun 02 $31 +$16 +52%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Kamen: Josy Daems vs Valentina Ivanov SELL Josy Daems 70¢ $65 18m
ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra SELL Mathys Picard 52¢ $85 59m
ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra BUY Mathys Picard 37¢ $63 1h
ITF Kamen: Josy Daems vs Valentina Ivanov BUY Josy Daems 39¢ $37 1h
ITF Kayseri: Keshav Chopra vs Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar BUY Keshav Chopra 36¢ $31 2h
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich BUY Meiqi Guo 27¢ $10 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $31 11h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $28 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 12h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu SELL Elena Micic 51¢ $18 13h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu BUY Elena Micic 30¢ $11 14h
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman BUY Paul Inchauspe 58¢ $26 16h
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman SELL Paul Inchauspe 62¢ $56 16h
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman BUY Paul Inchauspe 37¢ $35 17h
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman SELL Oscar Weightman 59¢ $38 17h
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman BUY Oscar Weightman 51¢ $34 17h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 59¢ $3 17h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 43¢ $7 18h
ITF Tanger: Karim Bennani vs Sean Cuenin BUY Sean Cuenin 17¢ $37 18h
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils BUY Rafael Jodar 41¢ $21 70d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elina Svitolina vs Karolina Muchova BUY Elina Svitolina 65¢ $10 70d
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? SELL Yes 65¢ $26 384d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? SELL Yes 86¢ $33 384d
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 384d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 384d
French Open: Zverev vs. Djokovic SELL Djokovic 80¢ $20 388d
French Open: Zverev vs. Djokovic BUY Djokovic 40¢ $10 388d
French Open: Musetti vs. Rune BUY Musetti 66¢ $1 391d
French Open: Musetti vs. Rune BUY Musetti 66¢ $30 391d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records