Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x449e…0def
other · 10 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$19 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 2 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% −$20
sports 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 61¢ $20 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 36¢ $18 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 62¢ $18 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $18 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 53¢ $30 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $29 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.4% -27.1% 20% 20% -30.4%
≤30d 5 -19.4% -27.1% 20% 20% -30.4%
≤90d 5 -19.4% -27.1% 20% 20% -30.4%
all 5 -19.4% -27.1% 20% 20% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 20% -30.4%
10% -34.0% 20% -37.0%
15% -40.4% 20% -43.1%
20% -46.3% 20% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.67 · official $39.67 · 14 history records