Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x449c…879e
world · 236 markets active 4h ago
0.5score
+$18,039 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,583 · open +$17,003
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35,807
Realized+$3,583
Unrealized+$17,003
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses142 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$228
Open positions13
Markets (closed)223 / 236
History coverage103d
Avg bet$2,074
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 13 History 223 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$2,086
14 days−$4,452
30 days−$2,695
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 29¢ 64¢ $7,878 $17,010 +$9,133 (+116%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 52¢ $2,320 $6,300 +$3,980 (+172%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 27¢ $1,887 $4,726 +$2,839 (+150%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 67¢ $1,416 $2,011 +$595 (+42%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 68¢ $1,460 $1,921 +$461 (+32%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 71¢ 56¢ $1,708 $1,332 −$376 (-22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $1,008 $1,138 +$129 (+13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 42¢ 45¢ $454 $485 +$32 (+7%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 61¢ 86¢ $276 $390 +$115 (+42%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 98¢ $200 $259 +$59 (+29%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $78 $137 +$59 (+75%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 27¢ $67 $56 −$11 (-17%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $52 $43 −$9 (-18%)
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Rico 59¢ 0¢ $184 $0 −$184 (-100%)
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? No 68¢ 0¢ $2,991 $0 −$2,991 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 +$9 +669%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $4,830 +$280 +6%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? Jun 11 $500 −$16 -3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $500 +$61 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $1,590 +$289 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $407 −$253 -62%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,300 −$597 -46%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $830 +$3,487 +420%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $300 +$272 +91%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 07 $3,002 −$4 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $220 −$40 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 07 $1,200 −$550 -46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $891 −$853 -96%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $31 −$14 -46%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $5,067 +$684 +14%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $260 −$34 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $2,702 −$2,009 -74%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $4,102 +$319 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $36,770 +$596 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $24,065 −$3,232 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $2,340 −$1,382 -59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $1,981 −$1,465 -74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 29 $1,574 +$165 +10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 29 $3,023 −$1,249 -41%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $4,649 +$3,005 +65%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 28 $1,190 +$403 +34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $3,707 −$40 -1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2,200 +$1,181 +54%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 28 $182 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? May 28 $405 +$9 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $918 −$186 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $1,000 −$207 -21%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 27 $422 +$4 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $744 +$178 +24%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 25 $256 +$78 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $12,231 −$3,489 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $890 +$10 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $1,213 +$569 +47%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $4,990 +$337 +7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 24 $139 +$17 +12%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $185 −$184 -99%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 May 23 $895 +$30 +3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 23 $198 +$13 +6%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 23 $257 −$4 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $147 +$3 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 21 $999 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $300 −$4 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $470 +$91 +19%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? May 20 $726 +$202 +28%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 19 $606 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 88% +$19,326
politics 4% +$778
other 3% −$437
sports 3% −$241
crypto 1% +$684
finance 0% +$419
culture 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $321 4h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 13¢ $1 12h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 13¢ $0 13h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 13¢ $0 13h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 13¢ $0 13h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 13¢ $0 13h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $153 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $329 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $456 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $30 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $220 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $520 2d
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? SELL No 89¢ $484 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $500 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $151 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $196 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $500 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,416 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $500 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $1,000 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $500 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $53 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +72.7% +56.3% 46% 38% +2.6%
≤30d 54 +16.0% +4.9% 57% 30% -11.1%
≤90d 186 +5.2% -4.9% 61% 26% -8.8%
all 223 +5.1% -4.9% 64% 26% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 26% -8.7%
10% -14.0% 16% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -22.4% 9% -25.4%
20% -30.0% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,806.76 · official $35,806.96 (match) · 3500 history records