Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x449b…4dc0 crypto 220 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+2%) realized +$42 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate78%170W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$109
14 days+$109
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$141
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 +3.3% -6.5% 79% 36% -7.2%
≤30d 217 +3.3% -6.5% 78% 36% -7.2%
≤90d 218 +3.2% -6.6% 78% 36% -7.2%
all 218 +3.2% -6.6% 78% 36% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 36% -7.2%
10% -15.5% 30% -16.1%
15% -23.7% 18% -24.2%
20% -31.2% 16% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses170 / 48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)218 / 220
History coverage49d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 78¢ 100¢ $60 $77 +$17 (+28%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $45 $60 +$15 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$86 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$11 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$19 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$16 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$40 +133%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $14 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.59 · official $136.59 (match) · 571 history records