Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4498…da69 crypto 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-49%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-63.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -59.8% -63.6% 0% 0% -57.8%
≤30d 3 -59.8% -63.6% 0% 0% -57.8%
≤90d 3 -59.8% -63.6% 0% 0% -57.8%
all 3 -59.8% -63.6% 0% 0% -57.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.6% 0% -57.8%
10% -67.1% 0% -61.8%
15% -70.3% 0% -65.5%
20% -73.2% 0% -68.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records