Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x4496…97c0 other 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,060 (+17%) realized +$15,070 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate84%147W / 29L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$504per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,128
7 days+$3,052
14 days+$3,306
30 days+$7,154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$9,630
sports 13% +$3,614
world 10% +$1,496
weather 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -3.7% -12.9% 65% 35% +45.6%
≤30d 127 +2.0% -7.7% 87% 23% +1.4%
≤90d 176 +4.0% -5.9% 84% 22% +5.3%
all 176 +4.0% -5.9% 84% 22% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 22% +5.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 16% -4.8%
15% -23.1% 11% -14.0%
20% -30.6% 9% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$860) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$50 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.2 per $1 lost it wins $11.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$15,070
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses147 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions2
Markets (closed)176 / 178
History coverage40d
Avg bet$504
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $60 $48 −$12 (-20%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Fnatic 91¢ 100¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 +$33 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $218 +$26 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $870 +$683 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $178 +$2 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3,349 +$2,327 +70%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $49 +$132 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $103 −$103 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 04 $41 +$31 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $860 +$25 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $585 +$141 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Jun 02 $574 +$11 +2%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $422 +$153 +36%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $1,111 −$1,111 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Vinícius Júnior record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champ May 31 $1 $0 +4%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $35 −$27 -78%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $18 +$13 +70%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 30 $10 +$6 +57%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $15 +$12 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 29? May 30 $181 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 29? May 30 $978 +$1 +0%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden May 28 $2,017 +$71 +4%
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia May 28 $341 +$1 +0%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia May 28 $457 +$50 +11%
Juventus FC leading at halftime? May 25 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 24 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 21 $29 +$15 +51%
Will El Ahly SC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $64 +$45 +70%
World Championships: Hungary vs. Great Britain May 19 $613 +$95 +16%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 19 $100 −$6 -6%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $12 +$1 +10%
Will "Representing" be said 5+ times during Eurovision? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Czechia May 17 $114 +$24 +21%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $60 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 91¢ $23 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $107 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $73 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $10 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $218 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $736 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $124 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $176 29h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $2 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 31h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $2 31h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran SELL No 100¢ $75 32h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran SELL No 100¢ $106 32h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 27¢ $27 35h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 27¢ $2 35h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 27¢ $8 35h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 27¢ $7 35h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 27¢ $5 35h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $13 35h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3,123 35h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $13 35h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $134 35h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $18 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.26 · official $73.26 (match) · 853 history records