Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4496…f495
other · 79 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$6 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$137
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses38 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage469d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 78 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$23
14 days+$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $126 +$12 +10%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $125 +$2 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $261 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $125 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $108 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $125 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $534 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1,590 +$11 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $124 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $253 −$3 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $410 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $160 −$5 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $301 −$13 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $145 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $158 −$28 -18%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $139 −$24 -17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $1,089 −$2 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $167 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $55 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $150 +$45 +30%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $35 +$1 +3%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $37 +$1 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 13 $957 −$1 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $2,004 +$3 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $1,050 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 23 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 27 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 21 $1 $0 +22%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 18 $16 $0 -1%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 9–16? May 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 89% −$2
other 9% $0
politics 1% +$6
sports 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $137 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $92 6h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $47 6h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 82¢ $126 9h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $10 31h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 71¢ $26 39h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 71¢ $90 39h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $46 40h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $78 40h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $137 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $137 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $104 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $125 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $121 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $124 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $24 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $24 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $125 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $125 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $136 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $136 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $14 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $110 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $124 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $124 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $124 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $124 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $124 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 60% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 23 +0.2% -9.4% 48% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 27 +0.2% -9.4% 48% 4% -9.5%
all 78 +1.4% -8.2% 49% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 6% -9.5%
10% -17.0% 5% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.02 · official $137.02 (match) · 287 history records