Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4495…724d other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$16
politics 31% −$12
sports 10% −$11
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 110 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 143 +5.2% -4.8% 6% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 3% -9.6%
10% -13.9% 3% -18.3%
15% -22.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -29.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage133d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $212 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $228 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $159 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $319 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $184 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $173 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $342 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 16 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $324 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $382 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $174 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $175 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $153 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $144 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $164 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $355 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $165 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $151 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $201 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $200 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $186 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $179 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $336 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $186 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $198 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 15h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 21h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 30h
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 30h
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $31 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 3d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 9d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $21 12d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $21 12d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 15d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 16d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 16d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $30 17d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.95 · official $31.95 (match) · 431 history records