Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
44 0x4494…4c57 crypto 500 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$144 (+2%) realized +$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate71%353W / 147L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$32
14 days−$38
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$124
other 1% −$5
sports 0% −$10
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.5% -8.2% 76% 48% -14.1%
≤30d 46 -3.2% -12.4% 70% 52% -16.4%
≤90d 192 +1.6% -8.1% 70% 51% -10.3%
all 500 +3.0% -6.8% 71% 54% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 54% -7.9%
10% -15.7% 39% -16.7%
15% -23.9% 28% -24.7%
20% -31.3% 20% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses353 / 147
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)500 / 500
History coverage126d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 500 Trades
no open positions (127 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AN Jun 19 $5 +$8 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$50 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 31 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 30 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 30 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 29 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 20 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 19 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 08 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AN BUY 38¢ $5 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1483 history records