Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4492…0062 other 34 markets active 3h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$2
other 41% −$3
politics 7% −$2
tech 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 9 -1.4% -10.8% 11% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 12 +3.3% -6.5% 17% 8% -10.6%
all 33 -7.9% -16.7% 30% 6% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 6% -10.6%
10% -24.7% 3% -19.1%
15% -31.9% 3% -27.0%
20% -38.6% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage465d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $2 $0 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $42 −$2 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $24 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $10 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $46 −$1 -3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 15 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Apr 23 $6 −$1 -19%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 14 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $41 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $25 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $16 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $41 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $17 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $17 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $45 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $46 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $25 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $11 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $48 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $48 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $24 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $16 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.88 · official $41.30 (match) · 106 history records