Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:42:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
44 0x4492…cad8 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$135 (-2%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 33L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days+$216
14 days+$136
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$373
tech 19% −$64
sports 2% −$35
politics 1% −$12
other 1% −$46
culture 0% −$20
world 0% +$16
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 45% -3.2%
≤30d 47 -19.3% -27.0% 30% 28% -4.4%
≤90d 47 -19.3% -27.0% 30% 28% -4.4%
all 47 -19.3% -27.0% 30% 28% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 28% -4.4%
10% -34.0% 23% -13.5%
15% -40.4% 21% -21.9%
20% -46.2% 17% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$35 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage15d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $380 +$82 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $153 −$50 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $206 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $336 −$156 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $311 +$309 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $516 −$173 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $129 +$71 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $463 +$226 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$20 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $206 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $248 +$190 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $502 −$99 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $57 +$37 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 27 $382 −$147 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $158 +$75 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $132 +$40 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $67 +$67 +100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 27 $167 −$32 -19%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by June 30? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 17 $20 −$6 -32%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 17 $67 −$4 -6%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 15 $70 −$68 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$18 +366%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 14 $92 −$8 -8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $31 −$4 -12%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $31 −$2 -7%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? Jun 13 $26 −$2 -8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $51 −$16 -32%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$17 -56%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $227 +$171 +75%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $33 −$26 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $130 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $154 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records