Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x4490…e3ba other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$462 (+12%) realized +$609 · open −$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%44W / 33L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$334
7 days+$815
14 days+$583
30 days+$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$296
sports 44% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +19.6% +8.2% 62% 61% +13.3%
≤30d 77 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 56% +5.7%
≤90d 77 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 56% +5.7%
all 77 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 56% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 56% +5.7%
10% -9.8% 42% -4.4%
15% -18.5% 38% -13.6%
20% -26.5% 36% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$23 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized+$609
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses44 / 33
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions11
Markets (closed)77 / 88
History coverage8d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $260 $115 −$145 (-56%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 92¢ 92¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? No 91¢ 91¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? No 89¢ 88¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? No 85¢ 84¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 54¢ 54¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 44¢ 44¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? No 66¢ 66¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Morocco leading at halftime? No 60¢ 60¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? No 57¢ 56¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? No 57¢ 56¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 +$6 +40%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $12 +$9 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $47 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $38 +$4 +12%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $45 +$5 +11%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $12 +$9 +79%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 +$5 +29%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 +$10 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $42 +$6 +14%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $23 −$22 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$9 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $39 +$7 +17%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 +$12 +134%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 +$10 +97%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $62 +$38 +62%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $41 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $42 +$5 +13%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $104 −$4 -3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 −$1 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $42 +$58 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 +$49 +105%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $41 +$49 +119%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $36 +$9 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$52 +291%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $43 +$54 +124%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $42 +$5 +11%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $41 +$6 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $14 +$7 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $43 +$59 +140%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $47 +$43 +93%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $97 +$15 +16%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $47 +$53 +114%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$59 +188%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $53 +$47 +90%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $192 +$36 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $62 51m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 92¢ $49 59m
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 85¢ $37 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $12 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 91¢ $43 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 89¢ $38 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $12 1h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 66¢ $14 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 90¢ $45 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 89¢ $38 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $13 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $16 24h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $12 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $8 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $23 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 95¢ $47 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $15 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $12 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $11 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $12 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 22¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 87¢ $42 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $11 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 24h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $6 24h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $13 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.74 · official $370.74 (match) · 161 history records