Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4490…8c49
crypto · 1083 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,940 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,940 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,940
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses718 / 365
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1083 / 1083
History coverage12d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day135.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1083 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$183
7 days−$178
14 days−$1,940
30 days−$1,940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$32 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$32 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$34 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$28 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$37 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$32 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$31 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$16 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$7 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$7 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$7 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$13 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$14 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1,940
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $18 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $19 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $18 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $19 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $22 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 -2.9% -12.2% 34% 34% -21.8%
≤30d 1083 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 43% -13.8%
≤90d 1083 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 43% -13.8%
all 1083 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 43% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover135.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 43% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 30% -22.0%
15% -27.7% 22% -29.6%
20% -34.8% 16% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records