Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:25:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4490…b480
crypto · 1381 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$246 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$246 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses603 / 716
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1319 / 1381
History coverage24d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day147.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1319 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$154
14 days−$177
30 days−$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% −$71
world 13% −$4
sports 6% +$5
politics 6% −$23
culture 0% $0
other 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $26 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $26 7h
Will Daniel Vilela win the Governor of Goiás election? SELL No 35¢ $11 9h
Will Daniel Vilela win the Governor of Goiás election? BUY No 38¢ $8 9h
Will Daniel Vilela win the Governor of Goiás election? SELL No 39¢ $11 9h
Will Daniel Vilela win the Governor of Goiás election? BUY No 38¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 413 -17.3% -25.2% 45% 38% -28.8%
≤30d 1319 -10.4% -18.9% 46% 38% -17.3%
≤90d 1319 -10.4% -18.9% 46% 38% -17.3%
all 1319 -10.4% -18.9% 46% 38% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover147.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 38% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 31% -25.2%
15% -33.8% 23% -32.4%
20% -40.3% 18% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records