Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

44 0x4490…9dc7 crypto 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$10 (-11%) realized +$15 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-30.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-73.8%	-76.3%	0%	0%	-56.7%
≤30d	3	-73.8%	-76.3%	0%	0%	-56.7%
≤90d	6	-23.1%	-30.4%	50%	50%	-31.3%
all	6	-23.1%	-30.4%	50%	50%	-31.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.4%	50%	-31.3%
10%	-37.1%	33%	-37.9%
15%	-43.1%	17%	-43.9%
20%	-48.7%	0%	-49.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -24% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.27 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$15

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage85d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Belgium leading at halftime?	Yes	47¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$25	−$5	-21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 12	$11	−$11	-100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs	Jun 12	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Mar 22	$10	+$1	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Mar 22	$7	+$3	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Mar 22	$5	+$2	+34%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	43¢	$19	17m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$25	1h
Belgium leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	47¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$11	84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$11	85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$10	85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$10	85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$7	85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$7	85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$5	85d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs	BUY G2 Esports	9¢	$3	85d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs	BUY G2 Esports	9¢	$2	85d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 14 history records