Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
44 0x4490…54d7 culture 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care culture specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$573 (+35%) realized +$605 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$195
7 days−$79
14 days+$365
30 days+$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 78% +$305
world 12% +$10
politics 10% +$18
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +27.9% +15.7% 83% 50% -16.5%
≤30d 10 +32.1% +19.5% 80% 50% +13.5%
≤90d 10 +32.1% +19.5% 80% 50% +13.5%
all 10 +32.1% +19.5% 80% 50% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.5% 50% +13.5%
10% +8.1% 40% +2.6%
15% -2.4% 40% -7.3%
20% -12.0% 30% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$137 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$605
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage9d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $129 $98 −$31 (-24%)
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? No 85¢ 80¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? Jun 27 $492 −$274 -56%
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? Jun 27 $112 +$79 +71%
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat? Jun 27 $27 $0 +1%
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 77m? Jun 26 $67 +$88 +132%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 23 $201 +$10 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $127 +$18 +14%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 21 $395 +$444 +112%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +41%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m? BUY Yes 19¢ $64 16h
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? BUY No 85¢ $13 17h
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 28h
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m? BUY Yes 14¢ $38 28h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? SELL No 95¢ $23 47h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? SELL No 95¢ $19 47h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? SELL No 95¢ $1 47h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? SELL No 95¢ $146 47h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? SELL No 95¢ $9 47h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? SELL No 95¢ $20 47h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? SELL Yes 45¢ $191 47h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m? SELL Yes 9¢ $29 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL Yes 55¢ $191 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 65m? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 65m? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2d
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? BUY Yes 25¢ $112 2d
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat? SELL Yes 40¢ $17 2d
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? BUY No 90¢ $207 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 77m? SELL No 88¢ $77 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 77m? SELL Yes 25¢ $78 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 77m? BUY No 75¢ $67 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m? BUY No 87¢ $285 3d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $191 5d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.76 · official $139.76 (match) · 54 history records