Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x448c…ce20 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$1
other 32% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% $0
world 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage126d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $107 −$1 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $107 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $215 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $108 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $109 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $109 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $109 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $109 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $109 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $109 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $109 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 04 $109 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Feb 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 24 $109 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $110 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $106 1h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $107 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $107 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $107 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $107 18d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $107 19d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $107 22d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $107 22d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 33d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 33d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 33d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 33d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $107 36d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $107 36d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 37d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 38d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 38d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 40d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 40d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 40d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $109 63d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $109 63d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $109 66d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $109 66d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $109 69d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $109 69d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $109 73d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 74d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $109 76d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $109 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records