Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x448b…c94a world 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$751 (+15%) realized +$693 · open +$58
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%52W / 34L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$80
14 days+$118
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$711
other 16% +$81
sports 15% −$28
crypto 1% −$21
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +13.9% +3.1% 74% 57% +7.0%
≤30d 52 -1.9% -11.2% 62% 44% -6.0%
≤90d 86 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 41% +4.0%
all 86 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 41% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 41% +4.0%
10% -17.7% 28% -6.0%
15% -25.7% 20% -15.0%
20% -32.9% 15% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$9 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$494
Realized+$693
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses52 / 34
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions11
Markets (closed)86 / 97
History coverage81d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $24 +$7 +28%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$2 -68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +16%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3 +$1 +31%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +16%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +6%
Harry Kane: 4+ shots Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Iñaki Williams: 2+ shots Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $136 +$20 +15%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $30 +$4 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$2 -13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $81 +$31 +39%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +54%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $27 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +142%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 10 $325 −$5 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
NBA Finals: Will there be a Breen Bang in Game 3? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 07 $300 +$5 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $75 +$3 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $100 +$18 +18%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 06 $30 +$4 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $100 +$5 +5%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? Jun 06 $70 +$27 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $5 +$1 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $25 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 28 $20 −$7 -35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 27 $41 −$17 -43%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $101 −$43 -43%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $51 −$19 -38%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $144 +$33 +23%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 84¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 77¢ $23 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $23 2h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3 2h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 2h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $3 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 3h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $23 3h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 89¢ $10 39h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $10 39h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 40h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 90¢ $6 47h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 47h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 56¢ $10 47h
Iñaki Williams: 2+ shots BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Harry Kane: 4+ shots BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 85¢ $40 2d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 85¢ $60 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $3 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.39 · official $494.39 (match) · 252 history records