Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x4486…6577 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+6%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$1
sports 20% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.8% -2.5% 57% 57% -1.8%
≤30d 7 +7.8% -2.5% 57% 57% -1.8%
≤90d 7 +7.8% -2.5% 57% 57% -1.8%
all 7 +7.8% -2.5% 57% 57% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 57% -1.8%
10% -11.8% 57% -11.2%
15% -20.3% 57% -19.8%
20% -28.1% 57% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $16 +$9 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $26 +$30 +115%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $21 +$14 +69%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $8 +$9 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $21 6m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.74 · official $19.74 (match) · 18 history records