Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:37:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

44 0x4486…b087 crypto 20 markets active 2d ago coverage 99d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$106 (+1%) realized +$106 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR10%break-even

Win rate95%19W / 1L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$472per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$117

7 days+$34

14 days+$35

30 days+$36

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +10%

net ROI/market (all)-8.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+6.1%	-4.0%	75%	50%	-8.0%
≤30d	8	+3.1%	-6.7%	88%	25%	-8.7%
≤90d	18	+1.5%	-8.1%	94%	11%	-9.0%
all	20	+1.7%	-8.0%	95%	10%	-8.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.0%	10%	-8.8%
10%	-16.8%	10%	-17.5%
15%	-24.9%	5%	-25.5%
20%	-32.2%	0%	-32.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$588) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$234 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.34 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$106

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)95%

Wins / losses19 / 1

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage99d

Avg bet$472

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$512	+$117	+23%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$367	+$145	+40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$599	−$234	-39%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$594	+$6	+1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8?	Jun 09	$588	+$1	+0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?	Jun 02	$271	$0	+0%
Trump out as President by May 31?	Jun 02	$322	$0	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 22?	May 25	$591	+$1	+0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun	May 10	$240	+$1	+0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec	May 09	$350	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	May 01	$291	$0	+0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April?	May 01	$300	$0	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 24?	Apr 25	$591	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 17?	Apr 18	$400	$0	+0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers	Apr 09	$587	+$3	+1%
Rockets vs. Suns	Apr 09	$581	+$6	+1%
Hawks vs. Magic	Apr 03	$580	+$1	+0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	Apr 01	$580	+$1	+0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	Mar 20	$550	+$30	+5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14?	Mar 14	$549	+$1	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	81¢	$512	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$367	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	26¢	$365	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$599	3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	99¢	$594	3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8?	BUY No	100¢	$588	13d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$271	24d
Trump out as President by May 31?	BUY No	100¢	$322	24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 22?	BUY No	100¢	$591	31d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec	BUY No	100¢	$350	45d
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun	BUY No	100¢	$240	45d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$291	54d
Will Solana dip to $40 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$300	54d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 24?	BUY Yes	100¢	$591	59d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 17?	BUY Yes	100¢	$400	66d
Hawks vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	99¢	$587	72d
Rockets vs. Suns	BUY Rockets	99¢	$581	73d
Hawks vs. Magic	BUY Hawks	100¢	$580	79d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	BUY No	100¢	$580	88d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	BUY Gen.G	95¢	$550	93d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 14?	BUY No	100¢	$549	100d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records