Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
44 0x4483…20d3 crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$907 (+5%) realized +$952 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%42W / 37L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,051
7 days−$1,152
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$140
world 1% +$72
sports 0% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +27.2% +15.1% 62% 35% -18.5%
≤30d 79 +5.2% -4.9% 53% 35% -9.3%
≤90d 79 +5.2% -4.9% 53% 35% -9.3%
all 79 +5.2% -4.9% 53% 35% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 35% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 30% -18.0%
15% -22.3% 20% -25.9%
20% -29.9% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$107 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$952
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses42 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage9d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $55 $10 −$45 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $982 −$881 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $957 +$199 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $806 +$84 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $603 +$48 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $401 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $511 +$230 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $406 +$108 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $407 −$306 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $403 +$47 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $304 +$83 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $477 +$133 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $401 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $206 −$103 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $418 +$154 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $304 +$70 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$43 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $410 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $206 +$198 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $416 −$416 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$77 +1494%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $203 −$83 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $305 −$101 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $517 +$141 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $703 +$41 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $304 +$116 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $207 −$98 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $814 −$232 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $575 +$383 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $721 +$547 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $302 +$32 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $603 +$49 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $407 +$134 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $333 +$375 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $130 +$10 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.31 · official $10.36 (match) · 341 history records