Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
44 0x4483…c565 sports 724 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 250d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$63,155 (-21%) realized −$60,670 · open −$2,485
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%312W / 403L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$2,503est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$32,103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 250d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$10,885
politics 20% −$3,201
other 13% −$3,750
world 3% −$1,392
crypto 2% −$903
tech 1% +$360
economics 0% +$71
culture 0% +$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -40.1% -45.8% 19% 16% -26.0%
≤30d 108 -13.8% -22.0% 40% 34% -18.8%
≤90d 463 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 39% -17.7%
all 715 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 41% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 41% -15.7%
10% -26.2% 39% -23.7%
15% -33.3% 36% -31.1%
20% -39.9% 33% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$241 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$32,103
Realized−$60,670
Unrealized−$2,485
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses312 / 403
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$2,503
Open positions9
Markets (closed)715 / 724
History coverage250d ⚠
Avg bet$417
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 715 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $26,623 $24,207 −$2,415 (-9%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 39¢ 50¢ $1,992 $2,557 +$565 (+28%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $2,128 $2,038 −$90 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $1,500 $1,405 −$95 (-6%)
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 37¢ 26¢ $1,946 $1,382 −$563 (-29%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $100 $183 +$83 (+83%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $100 $145 +$45 (+45%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $203 −$77 -38%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $306 −$300 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $256 −$250 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $507 −$350 -69%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $558 −$41 -7%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $304 −$15 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $306 −$302 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $507 −$500 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $274 −$270 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $227 −$157 -69%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $304 −$181 -60%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $304 −$300 -98%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $254 −$250 -98%
Andrey Rublev vs. Hubert Hurkacz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $254 −$250 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $508 +$430 +85%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 +$716 +234%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $407 −$174 -43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $510 +$705 +138%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $508 −$371 -73%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $456 −$154 -34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $305 −$15 -5%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $204 −$70 -34%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $609 +$564 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,542 +$2,457 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $787 −$730 -93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $609 −$516 -85%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $356 +$497 +140%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $693 −$693 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $859 −$250 -29%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $437 −$277 -63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $355 −$350 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $355 −$350 -98%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 14 $406 +$383 +94%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $253 −$250 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $203 +$1 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $203 −$9 -4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $406 −$63 -16%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $405 +$325 +80%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $253 +$201 +80%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $365 −$145 -40%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $254 +$372 +146%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,322 +$1,580 +120%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $508 −$500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $126 55m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $203 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 51¢ $408 27h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $306 32h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 50¢ $510 33h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 34h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 35h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 38¢ $205 44h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $305 2d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 32¢ $308 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $157 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $31 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $342 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $8 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $82 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $29 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $7 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $49 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $508 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 54¢ $90 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 54¢ $96 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 54¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,102.95 · official $32,103.31 (match) · 3500 history records