Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
44 0x4482…446c crypto 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%179W / 15L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$37
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 33 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 71 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 0% -9.5%
all 194 -0.4% -9.9% 92% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses179 / 15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)194 / 197
History coverage183d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $180 $180 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $139 $139 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 25? Jun 25 $249 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 25? Jun 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 25? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 23? Jun 23 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 20? Jun 20 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 20? Jun 20 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 20? Jun 20 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 20? Jun 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 18? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 18? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 18? Jun 18 $224 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 16? Jun 16 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 16? Jun 16 $179 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 13? Jun 13 $332 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $332 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $332 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $332 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? Jun 08 $331 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $331 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $331 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $329 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $328 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $328 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 1? Jun 01 $293 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? May 30 $293 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 28? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 27? May 27 $293 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? May 25 $277 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 24? May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 23? May 23 $277 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 21? May 22 $292 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? May 19 $292 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 15? May 15 $291 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 10? May 10 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $324 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $324 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $324 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on April 23? Apr 23 $323 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 20 $323 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 13-19? Apr 20 $323 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $322 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 16 $322 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $322 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $180 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $5 25h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $249 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $314 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $86 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $78 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $91 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $23 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $224 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $60 8d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $179 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $153 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $332 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $332 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $332 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $332 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $331 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $331 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $331 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.64 · official $336.64 (match) · 464 history records