Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:53:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x447d…5eea sports 55 markets active 5h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$72,877 (+23%) realized +$72,877 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 31L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$5,702per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$2,396est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62,269
7 days+$54,935
14 days+$61,605
30 days+$74,368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$54,645
other 14% +$24,528
crypto 2% −$7,502
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -39.5% -45.3% 38% 38% +13.5%
≤30d 47 -19.6% -27.2% 45% 45% +12.8%
≤90d 55 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 44% +11.2%
all 55 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 44% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 44% +11.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 38% +0.5%
15% -37.1% 33% -9.2%
20% -43.3% 25% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$4,176) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,133 vs −$1,662 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$72,877
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,396
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage34d
Avg bet$5,702
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $69,191 +$28,249 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5,273 −$5,194 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,193 −$1,193 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $82,524 +$23,276 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $805 −$805 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8,428 +$13,928 +165%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,211 −$1,211 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $901 −$901 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $18,946 +$6,742 +36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $619 −$619 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16,856 +$2,465 +15%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $9,798 −$9,798 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7,699 +$14,945 +194%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $259 −$259 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $4,176 −$4,176 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,765 −$2,765 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,706 −$1,213 -71%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $453 −$453 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,379 +$1,021 +74%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $330 −$330 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $3,903 +$2,007 +51%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $2,261 +$619 +27%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $1,291 −$1,291 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $4,049 +$2,391 +59%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $3,122 +$3,703 +119%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,733 −$1,733 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $492 +$108 +22%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $420 +$200 +48%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $6,665 +$4,135 +62%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $3,666 +$2,274 +62%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $7,591 +$5,159 +68%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $804 −$804 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $7,500 −$7,500 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $2,150 +$4,050 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev Jun 01 $55 −$55 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 31 $2,564 −$2,564 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $550 +$1,497 +272%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2,137 +$488 +23%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $12,093 +$2,257 +19%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $1,219 +$531 +44%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 30 $312 −$312 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 26 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters May 26 $197 −$197 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winne May 24 $1,651 −$1,651 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $521 −$344 -66%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $4,487 −$4,487 -100%
Will Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 23 $837 −$10 -1%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr May 23 $1,296 −$11 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $407 5h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $68,785 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $1,051 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $2 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $1 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $1 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $2 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $0 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $0 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $1 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $5 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $72 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $0 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $0 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $0 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $5 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $0 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $5 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $12 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $5 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $16 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $0 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $1 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $2 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $0 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $10 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No $2 9h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $10,764 12h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $71,760 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 32¢ $80 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 456 history records