Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
44 0x447c…49b2 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+5%) realized +$29 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$53
sports 34% −$18
culture 19% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.0% -21.3% 33% 33% +10.0%
≤30d 9 -41.3% -46.9% 22% 22% -32.7%
≤90d 16 -24.1% -31.3% 38% 31% -4.9%
all 16 -24.1% -31.3% 38% 31% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 31% -4.9%
10% -37.9% 25% -14.0%
15% -43.9% 25% -22.3%
20% -49.4% 25% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage68d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 79¢ 78¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 44¢ 41¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $17 +$10 +62%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $14 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 01 $97 −$17 -18%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 −$7 -37%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 21 $20 +$4 +21%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $13 +$9 +65%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 3 FC Barcelona? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $20 +$15 +76%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 3 - 1 FC Barcelona? Apr 14 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $67 +$57 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $8 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $3 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $27 39h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 47h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 10d
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $40 14d
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder $1 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 21d
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 31d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 31d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 33d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $13 37d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 40d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 61d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 61d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 61d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 61d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $0 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.87 · official $82.87 (match) · 64 history records