Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:59:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
44 0x4479…c8fb other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+8%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% $0
tech 1% +$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 50% +4.2%
≤30d 2 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 50% +4.2%
≤90d 2 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 50% +4.2%
all 2 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 50% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.6% 50% +4.2%
10% +0.0% 50% -5.8%
15% -9.6% 50% -14.9%
20% -18.5% 0% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×128.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×128.7 per $1 lost it wins $128.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 78¢ 78¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $1 $0 +45%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 24 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.76 · official $117.76 (match) · 14 history records