Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4478…02a4
world · 88 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,311 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13,849 · open +$9,703
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$39,628
Realized−$13,849
Unrealized+$9,703
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses40 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)82 / 88
Avg bet$5,651
Trades / day146.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 9 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,391
7 days−$9,325
14 days−$19,211
30 days−$13,849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $7,567 $19,110 +$11,543 (+153%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $8,153 $9,300 +$1,147 (+14%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $3,046 $3,488 +$442 (+15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $1,232 $2,700 +$1,468 (+119%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $5,516 $2,665 −$2,851 (-52%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $2,186 $1,995 −$191 (-9%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $259 $151 −$107 (-41%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $126 $140 +$14 (+11%)
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 73¢ 3¢ $1,840 $78 −$1,762 (-96%)
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5,333 $0 −$5,333 (-100%)
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $686 $0 −$686 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1,953 $0 −$1,953 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$17 -44%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 12 $686 −$475 -69%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $2,935 −$1,899 -65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $3,066 −$1,690 -55%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $5,264 −$1,198 -23%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $1,066 +$1,081 +101%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $9,765 −$19 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $5,627 +$671 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $650 −$212 -33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $840 +$2,020 +240%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $33,695 −$7,586 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 04 $12,825 −$6,048 -47%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,796 +$3,784 +211%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 03 $260 +$3 +1%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $2,645 −$2,276 -86%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $5,887 −$4,138 -70%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $886 −$5 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 01 $142 +$6 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $426 +$573 +134%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 01 $1,395 −$6 -0%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 01 $40 −$27 -66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30,404 +$6,603 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $16,281 +$2,179 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $9,726 −$3,624 -37%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $1,096 −$492 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $5,737 +$486 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 30 $2,373 +$23 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $2,013 −$1,340 -67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $10,549 −$950 -9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $7,029 −$6,385 -91%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $9,841 +$1,163 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $78 +$13 +17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1,040 +$147 +14%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $378 +$89 +24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $101 +$334 +332%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $9,850 +$962 +10%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 28 $2 +$1,303 +76131%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $2,309 −$766 -33%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu May 28 $247 −$241 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $758 −$538 -71%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $1,520 +$1,859 +122%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? May 28 $2,302 +$66 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? May 28 $79 −$28 -35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $29,945 −$2,989 -10%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $249 −$13 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 27 $922 +$116 +13%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 27 $308 −$10 -3%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $222 +$1,272 +573%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $6,305 +$282 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 96% −$4,386
politics 1% +$439
finance 1% −$1,350
other 1% +$1,070
crypto 0% +$573
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 7¢ $208 5m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $751 41m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 45m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $32 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $381 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $259 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $450 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $682 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $650 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $142 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $164 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $151 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $393 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $261 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $179 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.3% -6.5% 33% 33% -24.9%
≤30d 82 +64.6% +48.9% 49% 32% -14.5%
≤90d 82 +64.6% +48.9% 49% 32% -14.5%
all 82 +64.6% +48.9% 49% 32% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover146.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.9% 32% -14.5%
10% +34.7% 18% -22.7%
15% ← realistic here +21.7% 17% -30.2%
20% +9.7% 16% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,627.68 · official $39,628.39 (match) · 3500 history records