Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4478…7f8a weather 298 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$343 (-1%) realized −$388 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate71%193W / 77L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4,346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days+$46
14 days+$85
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% +$575
other 9% +$146
sports 5% −$30
crypto 5% −$1,030
world 0% −$41
finance 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.4% -12.6% 65% 40% -7.1%
≤30d 76 -15.1% -23.2% 66% 30% -9.2%
≤90d 270 -9.0% -17.7% 71% 26% -9.8%
all 270 -9.0% -17.7% 71% 26% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 26% -9.8%
10% -25.5% 17% -18.5%
15% -32.7% 12% -26.4%
20% -39.3% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$32 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$4,346
Realized−$388
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses193 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions28
Markets (closed)270 / 298
History coverage68d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $470 $499 +$29 (+6%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $488 $486 −$1 (-0%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $474 $474 −$0 (-0%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 100¢ $276 $300 +$24 (+9%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $276 $270 −$6 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $204 $204 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Over 97¢ 97¢ $194 $193 −$1 (-0%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 92¢ $186 $185 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $178 $178 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 84¢ 84¢ $168 $169 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $144 $141 −$3 (-2%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 62¢ $128 $125 −$3 (-2%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 93¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes 78¢ 92¢ $78 $92 +$14 (+19%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 91¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $83 $82 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 73¢ 72¢ $73 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 64¢ $46 $64 +$18 (+38%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 77¢ 56¢ $77 $56 −$22 (-28%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 94¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$5 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $76 +$24 +32%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $182 +$18 +10%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $493 +$7 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $85 −$7 -8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $52 −$40 -77%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $62 −$61 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$58 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $97 +$3 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 +$64 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $213 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $97 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $689 +$26 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $44 −$44 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 +$5 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $55 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $324 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $111 +$10 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $182 −$180 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $114 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $261 +$62 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $111 +$13 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $277 +$13 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $175 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $187 +$27 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 69¢ $279 15m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 73¢ $74 19m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $78 1h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $37 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 68¢ $206 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $194 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $43 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $93 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $94 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $93 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $91 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $186 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $277 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $182 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $129 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $79 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $12 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $76 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 15h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 81¢ $81 15h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 80¢ $80 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $85 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 19h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 19h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 19h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 60¢ $61 19h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 44¢ $89 19h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $145 19h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 94¢ $471 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,345.55 · official $4,345.55 (match) · 940 history records