Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4476…c5fc crypto 535 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$816 (-13%) realized −$788 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%89W / 404L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$241
14 days−$351
30 days−$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$351
crypto 37% −$508
sports 9% −$127
other 1% −$18
politics 0% −$10
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -7.3% -16.1% 1% 0% -19.0%
≤30d 133 -9.0% -17.7% 3% 0% -19.2%
≤90d 493 -23.3% -30.6% 18% 14% -24.1%
all 493 -23.3% -30.6% 18% 14% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 14% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -37.2% 12% -31.4%
15% -43.3% 11% -38.0%
20% -48.9% 10% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$788
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses89 / 404
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions42
Markets (closed)493 / 535
History coverage88d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 493 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+236%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 1¢ 90¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+8875%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 26? Jun 25 $104 −$16 -15%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 25 $66 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 25 $65 −$9 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25? Jun 25 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? Jun 25 $60 −$9 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? Jun 25 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? Jun 25 $15 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 26? Jun 25 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 25 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? Jun 25 $36 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 25 $55 −$26 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $21 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $52 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? Jun 25 $66 −$13 -19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $66 −$8 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 24 $14 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 24 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 24 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $20 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? Jun 24 $14 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 25? Jun 24 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 24 $17 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Jun 24 $22 −$11 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? Jun 24 $0 $0 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 25? Jun 24 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? Jun 24 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 24 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Jun 24 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $34 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 24 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 24 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 24 $34 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $60 −$4 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 26? SELL Yes 53¢ $51 6m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 7m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 65¢ $64 8m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 66¢ $66 8m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26? SELL No 57¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26? BUY No 65¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? SELL No 52¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? BUY No 60¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? SELL No 53¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? BUY No 53¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 25? SELL No 72¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 25? BUY No 72¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? SELL No 49¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 59¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 26? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 26? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 25? SELL No 75¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 25? BUY No 75¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 30¢ $29 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 55¢ $55 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.22 · official $14.23 (match) · 2691 history records