Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
44 0x4474…72a1 crypto 1374 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$2,470 (+2%) realized +$2,467 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate78%1077W / 296L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$655
14 days+$128
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$505
other 0% −$8
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 +0.9% -8.7% 78% 31% -12.3%
≤30d 427 +2.2% -7.5% 78% 32% -9.5%
≤90d 1373 +1.2% -8.4% 78% 29% -9.2%
all 1373 +1.2% -8.4% 78% 29% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 29% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 17% -17.9%
15% -25.2% 12% -25.8%
20% -32.5% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$70 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$2,467
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1077 / 296
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1373 / 1374
History coverage78d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$10 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$12 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $206 −$102 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $203 −$88 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $204 +$46 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$7 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.22 · official $103.22 (match) · 3224 history records