Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4473…59ed world 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%34W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$1
14 days+$38
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$3
other 21% −$3
politics 18% +$3
sports 6% −$4
economics 5% +$1
crypto 3% −$14
finance 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 32 +2.5% -7.2% 38% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 71 +1.4% -8.3% 35% 3% -9.5%
all 99 +0.8% -8.8% 34% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 1% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses34 / 65
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)99 / 104
History coverage295d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 36¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $304 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $187 +$4 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $159 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $150 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $138 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $152 −$1 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $156 −$2 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $157 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $127 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $38 +$36 +94%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $106 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $106 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $93 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $617 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $106 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $117 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $488 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $334 −$58 -18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $74 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $213 +$4 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $134 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $119 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $251 +$2 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $281 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $107 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $102 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $263 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $250 −$5 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $102 +$21 +21%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $7 +$1 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $423 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $13 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $130 −$3 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $154 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $140 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $389 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $8 +$1 +8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $278 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $294 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $174 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $432 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $16 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $66 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $74 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $157 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $147 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $147 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $25 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $56 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $86 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $140 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $42 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $138 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $138 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.44 · official $0.00 · 494 history records