Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:22:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4471…d051 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$1
other 24% $0
politics 21% $0
sports 12% $0
culture 8% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage299d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $29 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 22 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 29 $14 $0 -2%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $33 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 25 $24 $0 -1%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 US Open? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $8 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $21 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $14 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $15 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 39h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $5 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $25 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $30 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $25 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $5 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $30 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $32 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $32 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records